CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T12:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33703/-1
CME Note: Full halo CME observed in SOHO LASCO, and full halo directed slightly more eastward in STEREO COR2A. The source is an X9.0 flare from AR 3842 observed in many wavelengths but mainly SDO AIA 131, starting at 2024-10-03T12:08Z and peaking at T12:18Z. Also observed as an EUV wave and dimming in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284, with surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature is characterized by a shock: a sharp initial jump in magnetic field (Bz: 6.16nT to 14.46nT, Bt: 8.41nT to 14.94nT) with continued fluctuation as the signature has progressed (peak Bt is 16.2nT). There were also enhancements in solar wind speed (approx. 372km/s to 525km/s), temperature (approx. 75kK to approx. 250kK) and particle density (approx. 1p/cc to approx. 3p/cc). Bz has remained mostly positive in the initial phase. While this signature is likely the result of the arrival of the 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME associated with the X9.0 flare from AR 3842, several preceding CMEs may have been swept into the front of the faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T06:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T06:30Z (-9.7h, +9.7h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: IZMIRAN
Prediction Method Note:
Initial CME velocity = 600 km/s Background SW velocity = 500 km/s Heliolongitude = 4 deg Predicted transit time = 65.7 ± 9.7 h Predicted Vmax = 525.8 ± 61.9 km/sLead Time: 46.58 hour(s)
Difference: 0.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) on 2024-10-04T08:20Z
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